In a loss projection evaluating both methods, why does Loss Forecaster shows the estimated ultimate paid losses to be much larger than the estimated ultimate incurred losses?

There are three reasons why the paid method could calculate a result much higher than the incurred method:

1. The claims are closing out fast, which makes the paid amount a high percentage of the incurred amount. Once development factors are applied, the paid method is skewed on the high side.
2. There is under-reserving. Once development factors are applied, the incurred method is skewed on the low side.
3. One or two claims have large payments relative to the rest of the claims for a period. Once development factors are applied, the paid method is skewed on the high side.